UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop

Main card
Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Mirko Filipović
Light Heavyweight bout: Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader
Welterweight bout: Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle
Lightweight bout: Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham
Lightweight bout: Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens

Preliminary card (Spike TV)
Middleweight bout: C.B. Dollaway vs. Joe Doerksen
Heavyweight bout: Matt Mitrione vs. Joey Beltran

Preliminary card
Lightweight bout: Thiago Tavares vs. Pat Audinwood
Lightweight bout: Steve Lopez vs. Waylon Lowe
Welterweight bout: TJ Grant vs. Julio Paulino
Heavyweight bout: Mark Hunt vs. Sean McCorkle



Thoughts?

I am interested to see how much Meathead has improved, since his last fight. He was one of the most green fighters on TUF, but he is quickly turning into a good fighter.

I was thinking Cro Cop was pretty much done for, but then he plowed through Pat Barry a couple of months back. If this fight goes to the ground, Mir will clearly have the advantage. Mir is trying to climc back into the title hunt and he will need to string together a few good wins. I am picking Mir to win this fight, but Cro Cop is still dangerous.

Little Nogs in on a roll and I think he is about 2 fights away from a title shot. The rumor going around is Jones will get Nogs, in a number one contenders fight, but Nogs will have to win this fight and I think he will.

Serra vs. Lytle should be a fun fight. I expect to see them both come out and bang and I expect to see Serra win a decison, but I will be rooting for Lytle.

I'm still not completely sold on Mitrione yet. He beat Marcus Jones, who despite his beastly BJJ, he has a glass jaw. Then he beat Kimbo, who really isn't all that himself. Not that I think Joey Beltran is a real suitable test to see whether Mitrione is legit or not, but it's at least a little step up in competition. I expect bombs to be unleashed in this fight.

Guillard/Stephens should be a very exciting fight. A better quality stand-up battle than Mitrione/Beltran, I see this being fight of the night. Guillard is one guy Stephens isn't going to out-power on his feet like he did with Sam Stout. Very hard fight to call, but I'll give Guillard the edge just because he's from Jackson's camp

Sherk/Dunham is Dunham's to lose and just another step towards a title shot. After Maynard, I like Dunham or G-Sot to get the next title shot.

Fuck Matt Serra Yeah, I see Lytle winning this one in case you didn't see it coming yet. Even though he doesn't have the best record, Lytle always comes up with great performances. In 11 UFC fights since his time on TUF, he's had 7 awards handed out to him. Win or lose, he'll be exciting to watch. IF he does lose though, the only way I see it going down is by decision if Serra can somehow outpoint him. But I see Lytle with submission of the night.

What will happen in Lil Nog/Bader? They will exchange briefly, Bader will take Nog down, Nog will work submissions, Bader will probably have to stand back up. Exchange, takedown, submission attempt, stand-up. Assuming Bader doesn't actually get caught and get submitted, I see that cycle just happening over and over again. I'm hoping Bader can pull it off, but Lil Nog is more than capable of submitting Bader from his back. And while Nog may be on a roll in terms of W/L, he still didn't look good against Brillz, who he was suppose to run over.

Mir cannot outstrike Cro Cop, plain and simple. You aren't going to see a Mir/Big Nog upset in this fight. If Mir tries to pretend his improved boxing is going to be enough for him to stand and back for a while, he'll get his face kicked in. He'll obviously need to take it to the ground and while his BJJ is one of the best in the HW division, I think Cro Cop's ground game is underrated because he's known as a kickboxer and they typically aren't good on the ground. I have confidence that Cro Cop will be able to defend enough on the ground to get it back to his feet where he'll win by TKO.

While I chose Guillard/Stephens to be FOTN and Lytle to get SOTN, I expect KOTN to come from somewhere on the undercard. Cro Cop is the closest thing to getting a KOTN on the main card, I think there's a better chance it's on the undercard. Maybe Paulino?

Mirco's ground game might be underrated, but I don't think he has a chance in hell of out grappling Mir. This is one of those fights were both fighters have a clear and absolute advantage. Mir's stand up is getting better and he has come a long way, but he should not try and stand with Cro Cop, but Cro Cop shouldn't try to grapple with Mir either. They say styles make fights and I am not so sure this will be a good fight.

Chris Lytle is a very exciting fighter, but he also has some underrated grappling skills. FOTN is what that dude does and I think he will be in contention yet again, at UFC 119.

Nogs got a controversial win, but it still counts as a win. I think he will win this fight and I hope that they rumor of Jones vs. Little Nogs is true.

Concrete Jesus wrote:

Mirco's ground game might be underrated, but I don't think he has a chance in hell of out grappling Mir. This is one of those fights were both fighters have a clear and absolute advantage. Mir's stand up is getting better and he has come a long way, but he should not try and stand with Cro Cop, but Cro Cop shouldn't try to grapple with Mir either. They say styles make fights and I am not so sure this will be a good fight.

He doesn't have to out-grapple Mir, he just has to defend enough to survive the round where he'll begin again on his feet. I don't *think* there will be an issue here. If he does get caught, it won't so much be Mir slowly grappling his way to a submission, I see it being more of a Lesnar leg lock that just comes out of nowhere. If given the time, I think Cro Cop has the intelligence and ability to properly defend himself from getting into worse positions.

Concrete Jesus wrote:

Nogs got a controversial win, but it still counts as a win. I think he will win this fight and I hope that they rumor of Jones vs. Little Nogs is true.

Yeah a win is a win, but if you don't look great against someone who should've been a can, what can I say about how you'll do in your next fight. Who knows, maybe Brillz will be the next JDS and Nog's fight against him won't seem so bad like with Werdum, but until then, he looked bad against a guy who should've been no problem for him.

I am not disagreeing with you on Nog, I still think he should have lost that fight, but that "win" still moved him up the ladder.

I think Mir still has the ability to be a contender, but, he has to win this fight.

I think Mir has the ability to be a contender, but I don't see him as one of the more favoured fighters to getting a title shot. The division as a whole is still pretty weak though, there's only a few upcoming guys that are really serious contenders, and then a lot of older guys that are probably on the decline. Mir is somewhere in the middle and if Brock can clear out the Cain Velasquez's and JDS' of the world, then Mir will merely get a title shot by process of elimination.

The Div is strong at the top, but weak after that. Even though he lost, I would have to say Carwin is still right around the middle of the pack though.

At least we saw what he could do for 1 round against Brock and it was damn impressive. If he can perform for more than 1 round, he could be a serious contender very easily again.

Obviously, Carwin's cardio was never tested, since he had not gone longer then 3 mins or something crazy like that. I am sure he will learn from that and come back with better cardio. Joe Rogan use to say Chuck had dynomite in his hands. Carwin has C-4 in his hands. There are very few guys that can take the guys best shot and stand up. Brock is an animal. Most everyone else would have been out to sleep with those shots.